The Head of Policy, Strategy and Partnerships (John Dimmer) and the Director of Children, Schools and Families (Yvette Stanley), outlined the main points in the report:

• the predicted population growth will have implications for all council services and for borough infrastructure
• three key shifts in the age profile of the borough are predicted to be a growth in the 0-19 population, decrease of ages 20-35 and increase in those aged 65+
• Merton will become increasingly diverse, though still less so than the London average. The child population will continue to be more diverse than the adult population
• population size will increase most in the poorest and more diverse wards, mainly in the east of the borough
• number of households will increase
• service implications are set out in charts within the report
• demographic and legislative changes will result in increased financial pressures for the council

In response to a question about why the number of children was increasing whilst the number of those of childbearing age (20-35) was reducing, Yvette Stanley said that a number of factors would contribute to this including that the population was increasingly mobile, with larger families moving into the borough. Also, people are having children over a longer period of time, not just between ages of 20 and 35. She added that it is assumed that the number of births will stabilise at 3,500 per year but this may change depending on the demographic profile of those moving into the borough.

Yvette Stanley said there had been a significant expansion in primary school places in the east of the borough already and there is scope for further expansion to meet need.

Further information was given in response to questions about migration and nationality:

• there are no projected figures available on the impact of the relaxation of EU working restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarian citizens, either in terms of numbers or where in the UK they would be likely to settle
• experience shows that an influx from a particular country is often followed by a reduction in numbers due to relocation elsewhere in the London, UK or abroad
• historically, inward and outward migration has been evenly matched in Merton
• figure 4.4 (BAME population growth) and figure 4.8 (countries of birth) appear to be contradictory because people from eastern Europe are classified as part of the White community
• country of birth data was obtained from the census but Scotland should not have been included in figure 4.8. ACTION: Head of Policy Strategy and Partnerships undertook to redo the figures and provide percentages for data in figure 4.8
• the customer contact programme is considering the format and content of information to be provided to new residents of the borough

The Director of Corporate Services, Caroline Holland, responded to questions about the financial challenges facing the council. She has had discussion with other London treasurers regarding innovative ways of responding to financial pressures and finding further efficiencies. She said that the council has weighted savings targets and pursued back office efficiencies in order to protect the front line services as much as possible. Yvette Stanley added that the Children, Schools and Families department has re-profiled services to shift resources towards the most vulnerable service users.

Caroline Holland said that the Medium Term Financial Strategy had taken into account the additional council tax income from a predicted increase in number of households. John Dimmer added that the number is a forecasted range and that 3,000 new homes are planned at present so the actual total is unlikely to be as high as 12,000. Caroline Holland said that the impact on council tax of conversions from houses to flats will depend on the council tax band applied to those properties. She added that the council will need to monitor the impact of conversions from shops to domestic dwellings. Increased mobility will make in-year council tax collections rate vary more than at present.

Caroline Holland said that no assumptions had been made at present regarding the cost of the council tax benefit scheme beyond 2015/16, pending a decision by council on the content of the scheme.

Councillor Samantha George requested a list of the sites shown in figure 7.8 and more detailed data on the decline in car ownership (page 73). ACTION: Head of Democracy Services to contact the relevant officers

A member raised concerns about the potential for vulnerable children in highly mobile families to “slip through the cracks”. Yvette Stanley explained the transfer arrangements for children who are subject to Child protection Plans. She said that the biggest challenge is posed by families who move very frequently and are not on the radar of statutory services.

In response to questions on specific details within the report, officers undertook to:

• find out whether there is evidence to show that restricting car parking provision on new housing developments reduces car ownership
• clarify the policy basis for car parking controls
• check the basis of government data in figure 5.2 as the key appears counter-intuitive to the reader

ACTION: Head of Democracy Services to contact the relevant officers

RESOLVED:

1. To recommend that the Overview and Scrutiny Panels each examine the sections of the report that are relevant to their remit, bearing in mind their existing work programme, and to use the information as a context for the budget scrutiny discussion in January
2. That the report should be used as a context for identifying potential scrutiny topics and for discussion at the topic workshops in June 2014

ACTION: Head of Democracy Services